One of the best ways to beat the books and pick’em platforms is by simply being early. Sure, throughout the course of the NFL season, there are a ton of variables, and nothing is ever a stone-cold lock. But when it comes to the market of NFL futures picks, the betting odds and lines will continue to shift tremendously over the summer.
Why’s that? Sharp money will come in when a “bad” number is posted, while daily news, depth-chart battles, and injuries will constantly change these numbers.
Our expert best bets will be right here every Friday thanks to our guy Justin Bales, who will keep tabs on the NFL futures market until he season kicks off.
NFL Futures Picks: Expert Best Bets and Odds
This week, we have two “NFL SZN” picks via Underdog Fantasy and another bet with a great line on FanDuel Sportsbook.
J.J. McCarthy Passing Yards
This has nothing to do with McCarthy as a player. Love him. Hate him. Truthfully, I don’t care. The Minnesota Vikings told us all we needed to know when they low-balled Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones left for a team where he could “compete” for the QB1 spot. McCarthy is locked and loaded as the starter.
If there’s one thing we know about the NFL, Kevin O’Connell is going to produce numbers at the quarterback position. He took over as Minnesota’s head coach in 2022, and Kirk Cousins threw for 4,547 yards across 17 games. In 2023, Cousins threw for 2,331 yards in only eight games. Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs, and Jaren Hall combined for 2,369 yards across the other nine games. Sam Darnold revitalized his career with 4,319 yards in 17 games last season.
The Vikings have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. They feature an elite offensive system. They also have several playmakers on the outside who can create for their quarterback. I’m not picking McCarthy here. I’m picking Minnesota’s quarterback. We’re just getting a discount because he happens to be inexperienced in the NFL.
Where to Play: J.J. McCarthy Higher Than 3,449.5 Passing Yards | Underdog Fantasy
Rashee Rice Receiving Yards
This is a number I’m comfortable going all-in on, and if he misses, I tip my cap. He posted 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven touchdowns on 102 targets as a rookie. He saw a limited role early in the 2023 season, but he paced for a 99-1,178-9 line on 126 targets across his final 11 regular-season games, which is when he saw more consistent snaps.
Rice essentially played in three games last season before he was injured. He posted 24 receptions for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 targets. The important aspect is that he played 74% or more of the snaps in each of those three games.
Plenty of people have argued against him because of the other offensive options for the Kansas City Chiefs, but we’re getting a massive discount on that. Rice is already practicing, and there are reports that he’ll be completely healthy to start the season.
Patrick Mahomes is set at 4,000 yards for the season. We know how efficient Rice has been based on his early-career production. If their star wide receiver can’t garner 22% of Kansas City’s receiving yards, I’ll take the L. This is far too low a number for his talent and the offense. This is unquestionably one of my favorite NFL futures picks of 2025.
Where to Play: Rashee Rice Over 874.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog Fantasy
Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards
I believe in Jeudy’s talent. He showed flashes for the Denver Broncos before posting the best season of his career for the Cleveland Browns. He recorded 90 receptions for 1,229 yards and 4 touchdowns on 145 targets.
Jeudy took a step forward in Week 8 against the Baltimore Ravens, and he didn’t look back from there. Over his final 10 games, he paced for a 117-1,637-5 line on 175 targets. He beat this total by nearly 100 yards in that 10-game span.
I wouldn’t project Jeudy to average 10+ targets a week in 2025, but it also isn’t out of the question. The Browns threw the ball over 650 times last season, and it’s unlikely they’re going to be better this year. Jeudy and Elijah Moore both saw 100+ targets, with David Njoku finding 97 in 11 games.
We’re likely getting a discount because of the quarterback situation. I wouldn’t consider Joe Flacco a downgrade, and I’m not entirely sure how I feel about Shedeur Sanders, especially as a rookie. Still, I expect volume and talent to win out in this situation.
Where to Play: Jerry Jeudy Over 900.5 Receiving Yards | FanDuel Sportsbook
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