NBA First Basket Predictions - Top First Basket Scorer Prop Bets

Looking for the best NBA first basket predictions and top first points plays today? You’re in luck! In this article, the Props crew will outline their top NBA first basket picks and bets for every day of the basketball season.

We mean it, because we deliver our best bets for every day there’s a game on the calendar. No load management here!

Below are our best NBA first basket predictions today. Be sure to check our NBA player props for more top selections for the current NBA slate.

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Thursday, February 12th

Let’s dive into Thursday’s NBA schedule from a DFS and betting perspective.

Most important injury situations of the day:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (OUT)
Ryan Rollins (Q)
Kyle Kuzma (Q)
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander (OUT)
Jalen Williams (OUT)
Isaiah Hartenstein (OUT)
Deni Avdija (Q)
Shaedon Sharpe (OUT)
Keyonte George (OUT)
Lauri Markkanen (OUT)
Jaren Jackson Jr. (OUT)
Luka Doncic (OUT)
Deandre Ayton (OUT)
Cooper Flagg (OUT)
Naji Marshall (Q)
Caleb Martin (Q)

(Last Updated: 4:45 PM ET)

Opening tipoff win percentages on this slate (via BettingPros):

Jazz (64.8%)
Lakers (64.2%)
Thunder (55.6%)
Trail Blazers (55.6%)
Mavericks (41.5%)
Bucks (29.4%)

Highest first shot percentages, filtered for today’s projected starters (min 20 starts):

Austin Reaves (22 starts, 27.3% first shot)*
Cason Wallace (41 starts, 19.5% first shot)
Ace Bailey (36 starts, 16.7% first shot)
Toumani Camara (54 starts, 14.8% first shot)
LeBron James (34 starts, 14.7% first shot)
Chet Holmgren (47 starts, 12.8% first shot)

* Reaves has been coming off the bench as he works his way back from injury. Watch to see if he returns to the starting lineup or not.

This article will be updated throughout the day. Check back later!

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NBA First Points Picks & Longshots

Our first basket plays, featuring a mix of shorter/longer odds

Quick notes: Because success in the NBA is so dependent on news and making the correct reactions, it’s often prudent to wait for more clarity before making picks. That’s especially true for a market like first basket, where starting lineups and even the smallest of changes can affect the best value.

The exception would be if you feel strongly that a certain player will/will not play and want to get ahead of potential line movement.

Here are our top targets for today:

Chet Holmgren First Points (+425)
Naji Marshall First Points (+840)

Check back for finalized picks and analysis. Good luck!

Remember that while first points plays are fun, they are also inherently riskier, longer-shot bets. Please be responsible with your bankroll management and general approach!

Read through more of our NBA player props content for the 2025/26 season. As always, everything is 100% free:

Best Player Props Today
NBA Betting Hub (Game Predictions & More)
NBA DFS & Prop Betting Strategy
Key Stats To Know: NBA Betting
Daily Promo Roundup

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Where To Place NBA First Basket Bets

The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your NBA First Basket needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price for NBA First Basket Bets.

On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your bonus bets: