With two NFL games lined up for Christmas day, we have you covered with our best player props.
Make sure to check out our other Week 17 Christmas content as well for all of our top picks.
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NFL Week 17 Christmas Slate Player Props
Here are our favorite player props for the Week 17 Christmas slate.
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Hollywood Brown More Than 4.5 Receptions (1.38x)
The Chiefs have a pass-heavy offense. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Kansas City has a 63.3% situation-neutral pass rate this year and 67.3% in their past four games. They’re unlikely to throttle down their passing attack after adding a new weapon to the mix last week.
The Chiefs added Marquise Brown to the fold in free agency, but he was on the Injured Reserve (IR) until last week with a shoulder injury. Hollywood Brown didn’t step into a featured role. Understandably, Andy Reid eased him into action. Brown had just a 33.3% route participation rate in his first action of the year.
However, Reid and Patrick Mahomes also wisely fed the speedy veteran wideout opportunities when he was on the field. Brown had a 23.2% air yards share, 19.5% target share, 0.53 targets per route run, eight targets, 25.0% first-read percentage, five receptions, 45 receiving yards, and 3.00 yards per route run.
Brown was an effective target hog. He also wasn’t pigeonholed into a one-dimensional field-stretching role. Instead, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Brown had a 7.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT), two targets behind the line of scrimmage, three short (zero to nine yards downfield), two medium (10 to 19 yards downfield), and one deep (20-plus yards downfield).
Brown could see an uptick in playing time in his second start, and his varied usage at different levels of the field can help him exceed 4.5 receptions for the second time in as many games played this year. Thus, I’ve ticked up his prop at Underdog to 4.5 receptions for the multiplier.
Where to play: Hollywood Brown More Than 4.5 Receptions | Underdog
Derrick Henry More Than 90.5 Rushing Yards
People who wanted to see the best from Derrick Henry wanted to see him land with the Ravens. Unsurprisingly, he’s excelled in the same backfield as electrifying dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson. Defenses must pick their poison.
Henry has made the most of a mouthwatering situation. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 64 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this season, Henry is second in rushing yards per game (109.1), first in yards per carry (5.88), fifth in yards before contact per attempt (2.85), fifth in yards after contact per attempt (3.04), eighth in explosive run percentage (6.8%), sixth in stuff percentage (39.1%), tied for 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21), fifth in success rate (59.1%) in zone concepts, and 13th in success rate (55.3%) in man/gap concepts.
Henry is playing at an elite level in his age-30 season. The game script should also be positive for him. The Ravens are 5.5-point favorites against the host Texans. King Henry should be busy if the Ravens have a neutral or positive game script. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Baltimore has a 49% situation-neutral rush rate this year and 55% in their past four games.
Additionally, Henry has been a monster in victories. In Baltimore’s 10 victories this year, Henry has rushed for 67, 68, 92, 106, 132, 140, 151, 162, 169, and 199 yards. He’s averaged 128.6 rushing yards per game with a median of 136.0 in wins this year. I believe the Ravens will live up to the betting expectations and win, which means I also expect King Henry to surpass 90.5 rushing yards.
Where to play: Derrick Henry More Than 90.5 Rushing Yards | Underdog
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of our Week 17 content linked below.
- Week 17: Content Hub
- Week 17: First TD Props
- Week 17: Anytime TD Props
- Week 17: Top Player Props
- Week 17: Last TD Props
