If there’s football on Sunday, we are here with an Underdog 10x play, and as usual – because we love life and hate rooting for “lower than’s” – we’re going higher, higher, higher, and higher again.
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A trip to Cleveland, where we’re going to take Xavier Worthy of the Chiefs to go higher than 20.5 yards for his longest reception. Per Evan Silva at Establish The Run, the Browns defense has allowed the third-most 20-yard completions in the league with 48. To be fair, Worthy has only exceeded this number in three games, but once hit 18 and twice hit 19 (both of them in the last three weeks). Furthermore, Worthy has gotten at least five targets in the last four games, and according to PlayerProfiler.com is ranked 25th in the NFL in deep targets and 16th in unrealized air yards. In short: He’s due for a breakout, and Cleveland looks like the right defense to do it against.
Next, to Tennessee, where we’re backing Joe Burrow to go higher than 276.5 passing yards. That’s a big number, but Burrow is averaging 332 passing yards over his last four: the Bengals are in must-win mode, their defense is objectively terrible, and Burrow cannot afford to take his foot off the gas. And that’s that for the analysis.
Moving on to Terry McLaurin to go higher than 66.5 receiving yards. This number is way too low. He’s blown through it in five of his last seven games, he’s in a dome in New Orleans, and the Saints have been giving it up all year to receivers of McLaurin’s ilk, especially recently. Last week, Malik Nabers went for 79 yards. Two weeks earlier, Jerry Jeudy smoked ‘em for 142 yards. The week before that, Drake London went for 97 yards. And so on and so forth.
Last up, three words for ya: Welcome to Dehember. Yes, we’re going to go with Derrick Henry rushing yards, and yes, the number is an eye-popping 101.5 he has to go higher than, but … it’s Dehember. The Giants are ust terrible, and their run defense is made worse as their main run-stopper, Dexter Lawrence, is done for the year. All hail King Henry.
NFL Week 15 Picks
Xavier Worthy higher than 20.5 yards longest reception
Joe Burrow higher than 276.5 passing yards
Terry McLaurin higher than 66.5 receiving yards
Derrick Henry higher than 101.5 rushing yards
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As a reminder, this is a longer-shot combo of picks that carries more risk but a higher return if all hit. Good luck with all of your NFL plays in Week 15!