For the second consecutive season, there is a Black Friday NFL game as an encore to yesterday’s Thanksgiving feast, and we have you covered when it comes to the best Chiefs-Raiders props and picks.
Lock in these picks early as the projections are always subject to change, then sit back and enjoy what looks to be an exciting Week 13.
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NFL Black Friday 2024 – Chiefs/Raiders Player Props
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Josh Shepardson unveils his top picks for this Black Friday matchup between the Raiders and Chiefs.
DeAndre Hopkins Lower Than 41.5 Receiving Yards
Despite the lovefest for DeAndre Hopkins when he barbecued Tampa Bay’s lousy secondary for 86 receiving yards on nine targets and eight receptions in Week 9, he hasn’t been a needle-mover for the Chiefs. In his first game in Kansas City’s uniform, Nuk had just three targets, two receptions, and 29 receiving yards against the Raiders.
In four games since cutting through Tampa Bay’s secondary for 86 receiving yards, he’s had 56, 29, and 35 against the Broncos, Bills, and Panthers. Nuk’s underlying data has been especially unimpressive since JuJu Smith-Schuster returned from an injury in Week 11.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 11, Hopkins was fifth on the Chiefs in route participation (47.6%) with a 14.3% target share, 17.5% first-read percentage, eight receptions (4.0 per game), 64 receiving yards (32.0 per game), and 1.64 yards per route run. Nuk also has a challenging matchup on Black Friday. According to Pro Football Reference, the Raiders have allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game (131.6) to wideouts this season.
Kansas City’s game script is unlikely to help Nuk’s receiving outlook, either. The Chiefs are 12.0-point favorites. Thus, the Chiefs should be able to lean on their running game in a lopsided victory.
Where to play: DeAndre Hopkins Lower Than 41.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog
Travis Kelce Higher Than 52.5 Receiving Yards
While the Chiefs might not need to chuck the pigskin late, they’ll probably lean into the pass early. According to RotoViz’s pace app, since Week 8, the Chiefs have had a 58% situation-neutral pass rate, and the Raiders have faced a 61% situation-neutral pass rate.
When Patrick Mahomes airs it out, Travis Kelce should be the focal point of Kansas City’s passing attack. He’s stepped into the lead passing-game option role since Rashee Rice was injured early in Week 4. In those eight games, Kelce had team highs in route participation (79.9%), target share (25.6%), targets per route run (0.28), first-read percentage (31.0%), receptions (60), and receiving yards per game (62.5). He’s also had a robust 28.5% air-yard share since Week 4.
During that heater, Kelce had 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 90 receiving yards against the Raiders in Week 8. Las Vegas has struggled mightily with tight ends this season. The Raiders have coughed up the sixth-most receiving yards per game (61.5) to tight ends this year, and Kelce’s still one of the best at the position in the NFL.
Even if the Chiefs smash the Raiders, as the betting spread suggests, Kelce will likely have a crucial role in moving the ball and piling up points. Thus, while the Chiefs can take the air out of the ball late, Kelce should clear the low bar of 52.5 receiving yards against his AFC West foe.
Where to play: Travis Kelce Higher Than 52.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog
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