As Sunday approaches, we’ve got another exciting slate of NFL games, and with it comes several opportunities to capitalize on favorable PrizePicks NFL projections.
Today, I’m breaking down three high-value plays, each backed by sharp projections and game context. Let’s take a deeper look at why these picks are worth locking in for this week’s action.
Sunday’s Sharp Selections: Week 5 PrizePicks NFL Preview
Let’s break down these plays and the reasons behind each pick, so you can take full advantage this weekend.
Play 1: Jakobi Meyers MORE Than 42.5 Receiving Yards
Jakobi Meyers has been a reliable target all season, and this week, PrizePicks is offering a receiving yards projection at 42.5, which is lower than his projected total of 63.5 yards. Meyers is expected to see nearly 8 targets in this game, which gives him plenty of chances to surpass this number.
What makes this play even more appealing is Meyers’ average of 67 air yards per game. This stat shows that Meyers is consistently getting targeted deep downfield, giving him plenty of opportunities to accumulate receiving yards.
With favorable projections and a strong role in the offense, Meyers looks set to easily clear 42.5 receiving yards.
Play 2: Zack Moss MORE Than 2.5 Receptions
Zack Moss is sitting at 2.5 receptions on PrizePicks, and DraftKings has him favored at -135 odds to go over that mark. Projections have Moss hitting around 4 targets and 3 receptions, making this a favorable spot to grab some value.
One key factor is the matchup against the Ravens. So far this year, opposing quarterbacks are attempting the third-most passes in the league against Baltimore, which means Moss should have plenty of opportunities to be involved in the passing game.
With his role in the offense and the game script likely favoring more passing attempts, Moss is a strong play to hit over 2.5 receptions.
Play 3: Demario Douglas MORE Than 25.5 Receiving Yards
Demario Douglas is another great value pick for Sunday, with a PrizePicks projection set at 25.5 receiving yards. Douglas is projected across the industry to rack up nearly 40 yards, which gives us a strong buffer for the over. Additionally, the Patriots come into this game as 4.5-point underdogs, which suggests a pass game script as they try to keep up with the Dolphins.
The Dolphins’ pass defense has struggled this year, allowing the third-highest adjusted completion rate against opposing receivers. With low winds expected during the game, there’s no concern about weather disrupting the passing attack.
All factors point to Douglas seeing enough targets to comfortably clear the 25.5-yard projection.
Final Thoughts: Sunday’s Best NFL PrizePicks Plays
Here’s a quick recap of this week’s top PrizePicks plays:
- Jakobi Meyers MORE Than 42.5 Receiving Yards – With projections of 63.5 yards and a solid target share, Meyers is in a great spot to exceed this.
- Zack Moss MORE Than 2.5 Receptions – Favored on sportsbooks to go over, Moss is projected for enough targets and receptions to hit this mark.
- Demario Douglas MORE Than 25.5 Receiving Yards – A favorable matchup, game script, and solid projections make Douglas a high-value play.
These plays are backed by strong data, projections, and game scripts, making them excellent choices to include in your PrizePicks card for Sunday.
Tip of the Day: Target Pass-Heavy Game Scripts
When placing your PrizePicks entries, pay attention to the expected game script.
Teams that are underdogs or expected to trail often rely more heavily on their passing game, increasing the opportunities for receivers and running backs involved in the passing attack. This can help you identify value plays and make smarter picks.
Good luck, and let’s make this Sunday a winning one!