The Kansas City Chiefs have been the bully of the AFC West for nearly a decade, winning the division for eight consecutive seasons. They’ve also been the gold standard in the NFL since winning the Super Bowl in 2019, appearing in another in 2020, and winning championships in 2022 and 2023.
No one has posed them a threat, and it’s unlikely anyone will challenge their spot atop the division this year, even with the other teams doing their parts to rebuild.
Since the Chiefs have unappetizing chalky odds to win the division, what’s the best way to bet in this division? Let’s look at each team and find a recommended course of action.
AFC West Division Odds
- Kansas City Chiefs: -230
- Los Angeles Chargers: +350
- Las Vegas Raiders: +900
- Denver Broncos: +2000
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 26.
Kansas City Chiefs Odds to Win AFC West: (-230)
Since Patrick Mahomes took the reigns for Andy Reid’s club as Kansas City’s starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have won at least 11 games every season, reached at least the AFC Conference Championship game each year, finished as the runner-up once, and won three Super Bowls, including the past two.
According to FTN Fantasy, the Chiefs were fifth in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), eighth in offense DVOA, seventh in defense DVOA, and sixth in special teams DVOA last season. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Kansas City had a +77-point point differential last year. They weren’t as dominant as in previous championship years, but they hit their stride at the correct time.
The Chiefs traded L’Jarius Sneed from their talented secondary. Nevertheless, Reid, Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and Trent McDuffie, among other talented players, are back in the mix. Rashee Rice might face a suspension. Yet, the Chiefs signed speedster Marquise Brown and traded up to select lid-lifter Xavier Worthy in this year’s NFL Draft, too. Kansas City is justifiably priced as a runaway favorite to win the division. There isn’t value in tying up betting funds on such chalky odds.
- Derrick Henry Over 999.5 Rushing Yards? Check out that and Josh’s two other favorite NFL Season-Long Player Picks this year.
Los Angeles Chargers Odds to Win AFC West: (+350)
The Los Angeles Chargers were fourth in the AFC West last year, finishing 4-12 with a -52-point point differential. The organization overhauled its decision-makers, firing general manager Tom Telesco and head coach Brandon Staley during the season. They’ve since hired Joe Hortiz as their general manager and Jim Harbaugh as the head coach.
Harbaugh surrounded himself with familiar faces, bringing Jesse Minter with him from Michigan as his defensive coordinator and adding Greg Roman to his staff as the offensive coordinator. Justin Herbert is their franchise quarterback, and the offensive line is stacked. Unfortunately, after cutting Mike Williams and trading Keenan Allen, the receiving corps is inexperienced and one of the worst in the NFL.
Still, the Chargers have enough talent on both sides of the ball to be scrappy, and Harbaugh’s track record in the NFL is impressive. As the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers from 2011-2014, he won 13, 11, 12, and eight games — back when the NFL schedule had 16 games. He has a .695 winning rate in the NFL. LA is probably a season away from seriously contending for the playoffs, but the combination of Harbaugh and Herbert could surprise NFL fans and sneak into a wildcard berth.
Las Vegas Raiders Odds to Win AFC West: (+900)
The stink of Josh McDaniels was flushed from the Las Vegas Raiders after a 3-5 start in 2023, and interim head coach Antonio Pierce rallied them to a 5-4 record to close the campaign. Pierce did enough to shed the interim label and become the club’s new head coach. Sadly, the recent track record for interim coaches retained as full-time head coaches hasn’t been good.
A battle between Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew for the starting quarterback gig this year doesn’t inspire confidence in Las Vegas’s 2024 outlook, either. The Raiders had a +1-point point differential and were 21st in total DVOA last year. They’re not a serious threat to the Chiefs for the AFC West, and they’re more likely to sink to the bottom of the conference than push for a playoff berth.
Denver Broncos Odds to Win AFC West: (+2000)
Last year, Sean Payton began the process of cleaning up the mess created by the Denver Broncos hiring Nathaniel Hackett as their head coach and trading the farm for Russell Wilson the previous season. The Broncos were 8-9 in 2023, but their underlying data was worse.
They had a -56-point differential, the worst in the division. Denver was also 24th in total DVOA. Payton’s ability to coax eight wins out of the Broncos last year was impressive. Now, he has his quarterback in place after the organization cut bait with Wilson and picked Bo Nix with the 12th choice in this year’s NFL Draft. Nix played in 61 games in college, turning his career trajectory around at Oregon. If he picks up Payton’s offense quickly, Nix could perform well as a rookie.
Still, Nix was the sixth quarterback picked in this year’s draft, and the cupboards aren’t full with top-shelf playmakers. Moreover, while Pro Football Focus (PFF) isn’t flawless, Jim Wyman and Dalton Wasserman from PFF ranked Denver’s roster as the worst in the NFL entering this year. They’ll be fighting to stay out of the AFC’s basement.
AFC West Predictions & Best Bet
The Chiefs have reached the Super Bowl in four of the previous five seasons. They’ve won the last two Super Bowls. As a result, Kansas City’s championship odds are chalky, and there’s more value in hoping they slip up early and their betting odds become more favorable.
Additionally, parlaying the Chiefs reaching the Super Bowl with one of the top teams in a wide-open NFC is appealing. In the NFC North preview, I suggested betting on the Packers to win the Super Bowl at +2000 odds at Caesars Sportsbook. The Packers are ascending, and the +4100 odds for a Chiefs versus Packers Super Bowl are inviting. Finally, the odds are long enough for hedging opportunities if the Chiefs and Packers reach their conference championship games.
Best Bet: Super Bowl LIX Matchup – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers | +4100 at FanDuel Sportsbook
More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions: