The MLB regular season has three weeks remaining, suggesting playoff contenders are already in a full-on sprint to the finish line of this 162-game marathon. So, too, is betting on World Series odds.
Four divisional leaders—the Rays, White Sox, Astros, and Brewers— have created enough separation to forecast a division title in the not-too-distant future. And for everyone else within a whisper of postseason contention, the remaining 20-plus games could be a grueling daily battle for home-field advantage, wild-card prominence … or the simple, yet tenuous act of surviving a divisional race which offers no consolation prize for second place in October.
The rampant playoff speculation piqued Props.com’s curiosity with how sportsbooks are assessing the World Series futures odds. Following are insights on World Series betting from PointsBet USA sports analyst Mike Korn.
World Series Odds 2021
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +275 |
| Houston Astros | +600 |
| Chicago White Sox | +675 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +700 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +750 |
| New York Yankees | +850 |
| San Francisco Giants | +1000 |
| Atlanta Braves | +1400 |
| Boston Red Sox | +2200 |
| San Diego Padres | +4000 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +5000 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +5500 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +6000 |
| New York Mets | +7500 |
| Oakland Athletics | +10000 |
Odds via PointsBet USA Sportsbook as of Sept. 8
Latest World Series Betting Action
According to Korn, sports analyst at PointsBet USA, three teams have garnered the lion’s share of betting action to date — citing ticket counts and handle (the collective money bet on a single event): the White Sox, Dodgers, and Yankees.
The Dodgers (88-52 through Sept. 8) have consistently trailed the San Francisco Giants in the hotly contested NL West race, the only division which boasts multiple clubs with a .620 or higher winning percentage. And yet, the betting community still holds the defending World Series champs in high October regard.
“The Dodgers have been hovering right around +300 for the past few weeks, but we shifted them into +275 (heading into September),” Korn said.
The confounding Yankees enjoyed winning streaks of five and 13 games in the month of August, fueling momentary thoughts of New York overtaking Tampa Bay for the AL East title. But alas, an ongoing mini-skid of five straight defeats dropped the Yankees into the No. 2 Wild Card slot, trailing the Red Sox.
Treachery may be afoot with the Yankees on the field, but the betting community still likes to dream big about the club’s chances during the postseason.
“The Yankees were at +1,800 to win the World Series in mid-August and got as far out as +2,500 during their mid-summer struggles,” Korn recalled. “Most recently, we shifted the Yankees into +850 (from +900) to win it all.”
The White Sox (80-59 through Sept. 8) have essentially treaded water the last two months, playing a mere two games above .500 since July 18.
However, that’s a common consequence of redoubtably owning an 11-game lead in baseball’s weakest division.
“(Chicago has) struggled as of late, and therefore we shifted the team’s odds out to +675 (from +650). The White Sox have been hovering around +600 for the last month or so,” Korn said.
Quiet Contenders On World Series Odds Board
The Giants, Rays, and Astros are cumulatively 99 games above .500 and virtual locks to clinch a postseason berth, sooner than later. And yet, Korn said these division leaders have yet to tickle the buying bone of the betting community, en masse.
Of course, there’s an upside to this dearth of bets involving San Francisco, Tampa Bay, and/or Houston. A championship run would be a great outcome behind the counter.
“(PointsBet) will be rooting for teams like Astros, Rays, or Giants to win it all,” Korn said.
Long-Shot Brewers Drawing Action
Korn said the Brewers (86-55 through Sept. 8) could be an interesting or perhaps dicey proposition for some sportsbooks, come October.
“The Brewers are one of our bigger liabilities heading into October baseball. We took a bet of $7,000 at +800 two weeks ago,” Korn said, noting the payout on that bet, should it cash, would be $56,000.
Was this bet made on solid footing?
Here are four reasons why it’s a strong buy:
- The Brewers (NL No. 2 seed) are positioned to draw the weak NL East champion in the Divisional Series round (Braves or Phillies).
- If Milwaukee (three straight playoff appearances from 2018-20) advances to the National League Championship Series as a No. 2 seed, it would avoid facing both the Giants and Dodgers during the postseason. (San Francisco and Los Angeles would likely meet in the Divisional Series round.)
- The Brewers’ revamped offense currently ranks 10th overall in runs scored, a dramatic uptick from last year’s 26th in the same category.
- The Brewers boast four of the best pitchers in baseball: starters Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 196/28 K-BB) and Brandon Woodruff (9-8, 2.48 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 191/41 K-BB); and relievers Josh Hader (1.45 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 84-19 K-BB) and Devin Williams (7-2, 2.65 ERA).
In other words, this Milwaukee club might be perfectly suited for postseason success, especially if it owns a home-field advantage for two or three playoff series.