Before we move on to the NFL Divisional Round picks and props, let’s take a look at our results from Wild Card Weekend. Overall, we went 3-2 in last week’s article, hitting some plus-money props to clear 1.55 units. It ain’t much, but it’s honest work. I’ll never turn down positive units.
Let’s keep the momentum by finding the best pick from each Divisional Round game this weekend. It could be a side, total, prop, alternate spread, exotic, number of times the Burger King whopper commercial plays (ok…probably not that), but we are determined to find the best overall bet from each contest. Take a look at our findings below.
NFL Divisional Round Picks: Saturday
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (4:30 pm ET)
I’m betting on the winning margin here. If you followed our article last week, then you know this worked out for us in the Bengals-Ravens game.
Here’s the rationale. I want to bet Jacksonville +8.5. The Jaguars should keep it close, but I don’t necessarily believe they’ll pull off the upset in Kansas City. For that reason, I’m betting the 4-way winning margin at FanDuel:
- Chiefs to win by 1-13 points
This, in effect, is like taking the Jaguars +13.5 with the caveat that Jacksonville cannot win the game. Because of that, the odds jump to +140.
It doesn’t always make sense to take the winning margin instead of the underdog, but I believe this is a great time to enact this strategy.
The Pick: Chiefs to win by 1-13 points | +140 at FanDuel Sportsbook
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (8:15 pm ET)
We are heading to the land of NFL player props for this bet, and we may have stumbled upon a diamond in the rough.
Depending on when you are reading this, the line may have moved. So I’ll cut to the chance and give the pick:
- Saquon Barkley over 26.5 receiving yards
That line is available on FanDuel as of Friday, Jan. 20 at 4 p.m. ET. The other sportsbooks have this pushed up to 28.5, and PointsBet actually has it listed at 30.5. I like this prop all the way up to 29.5, but why not take the extra yards if they are available?
Barkley has gone over this number in three of his last four games. The Giants will likely throw more than usual while trying to keep pace with Philadelphia. QB Daniel Jones loves to check down to his talented running back, as Barkley is averaging seven targets per contest in his last four.
This line feels too low, and Barkley could realistically cash this prop on only a few catches. He should get around a handful of opportunities to make it happen.
The Pick: Saquon Barkley over 26.5 receiving yards | -114 FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Divisional Round Picks: Sunday
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (3 p.m. ET)
I’m not sure what’s going on here, but we found value with another running back to go over his receiving prop. This time it’s Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon, and we like him to go over 24.5 receiving yards. Here’s why:
- Mixon has gone over this number in 7 of his last 9 games.
- Over that span, Mixon is averaging 4.3 catches, 5.1 targets, and 34.3 receiving yards per game.
- Listed as 5.5 point road favorites, there’s a chance the Bengals pass more than usual.
- The Bengals are down two key linemen, which could result in quicker passes to RBs and TEs.
On top of that, the Bills allowed Dolphins RB Salvon Ahmed to rack up 45 yards receiving last week. Prior to that, Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson caught five passes for 28 yards. Mixon can definitely get 25+ yards in this matchup.
The Pick: Joe Mixon over 24.5 receiving yards | -119 at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (6:30 p.m. ET)
For my final pick, I’m enlisting the help of fellow Props.com writer Josh Shepardson. In his Cowboys vs. 49ers player props article, Josh took a deep dive into 49ers WR Deebo Samuel and his matchup against the Dallas secondary. Based on that, I’m taking Samuel over 54.5 receiving yards on Sunday.
All in all, the Cowboys have allowed the fifth most receiving yards this season. They have allowed 15 receivers to rack up 55+ receiving yards in the last ten games. Samuel is fresh a 6-133-1 line (9 targets) last week, so the connection between him and rookie QB Brock Purdy seems to be alive and well.
This is a strong matchup advantage for Samuel, and he should have no problem hitting 55+ receiving yards.
The Pick: Deebo Samuel over 54.5 receiving yards | -113 at BetRivers
